FII View on current market upmove

 

More regulation by G20 –ve for return on capital: ING Fin 

 

Commenting on the outcome of the G20 meet, Tim Condon, ING Financial Markets said he doesn't expect anything from the meet. 

Deutsche AM positive on FMCG, Tele space 

 

Suresh Soni of Deutsche Asset Management feels that volatility is causing mutual funds to remove money but he sees no redemption pressure.

 

Near-term outlook for mkts uncertain, buy on dips: Experts 

 

Experts like Ajay Loganadan of HSBC Private and Sajiv Dhawan of JV Capital Services expect the markets to trade in a band for the next couple of month  Read More

 

Indian mkt valuations apt for long-term buys: Karl-Thomson 

 

Patrick Shum, Chief Strategist, Karl-Thomson Securities sees selling in the market going ahead as fears on the auto sector's future has been mounting 

 

Mkts to rally throughout 2009: JP Morgan 

 

Adrian Mowat, Chief Asian & Emerging Market Equity Strategist at JP Morgan feels that investor sentiment still bearish  

 

Expects Asian markets to come off a bit: Tyche Group 

Stephen Gollop, CEO of Tyche Group says,"I fear that the dollar will be the loser at the end of the day and will come back down". Read More

 

Small probability of mkts testing Mar lows: Credit Suisse

 

Robert Parker, Vice Chairman, Credit Suisse Asset Management, said markets are currently trading weak on profit-booking after the recent rally.

ECB should ease rates further: BoA Merrill Lynch 

 

Michael Hartnett, Global EM Equity Strategist, BoA Merrill Lynch said the depth of the European recession is just as big as the one in the US. 

Could be a multi year bull market for Asia: Puru Saxena 

 

Puru Saxena, CEO OF Puru Saxena Wealth Management said, I don’t think that this bear market has further to run.

Sensex will be driven by global markets: Barclays Capital

 

Jordan Kotick, Global Head-Technical Strategy of Barclays Capital says that the Sensex will be driven by global market trends.

 

Where do experts see markets headed?

Jhunjhunwala feels the Nifty may touch 3,850-4,000 during the year. Meanwhile, Desai believes the Sensex will range between 7,000 and 15,000 by December. He advises investors to focus on companies with good balance sheets.

Experts differ if current upmove qualifies a breakout

Markets built on the stellar gap up start and closed the day at a six-month high. It was an across the board surge led by heavyweights and sectors like realty and metals. At closing bell, the Nifty stood at 3,211 up 151 points, while the Sensex closed in style at 10,357 up 455 points. Markets closed with smart gains of 3.5% for the week. Also see: Nifty ends above 3200 on strong global cues; Realty up 9%

 

Shashank Khade, Vice-President, Portfolio Managment Services, Kotak Securities, said today's upmove does not look like a breakout for markets. "This entire upmove happened on the back of a couple of events that are clustered together. The G-20 meeting is now progressing. There is also a final vote-on-account (VoA) on the mark-to-market (MTM) accounting. All this has boiled up sentiment substantially in global markets. Indian markets, being a slave of the global markets, will behave in the same manner the global markets rally up or down."

He feels markets have got carried away by the momentum in global markets. "Today’s rally reminds me of the last four months of 2007 where momentum was the way to go. One needs to wait it out and understand how events pan out in the next couple of weeks or days before taking aggressive incremental equity investments as one could be looking at equal upsides and downsides in equities."

Khade cautiones that if rewards are going to be fast and swift, the punishment is also going to be the same if global markets were to rally down. "Most global markets from the first week of March onwards to now have rallied substantially and are clearly ahead of earnings season, which is going to be pretty weak. We are precariously poised globally and more importantly in India. We are not going to have great amount of positive surprises after such a rally has taken place at the pace at which we are going."

"If one were to look at 8,000 to be a base, then 12,000-12,500 would be the upside on a most optimistic case. The risk rewards are not as great as one wants it to be and clearly the downsides are pretty large if one's call goes wrong. I would be a bit cautious and guarded rather than blast away at these sort of levels."

According to him, pessimism was a sure sign of the rally continuing further but investors are now beginning to buy. "The most important foundation for the rally was pessimism, which was at a high in the last couple of weeks. Nobody wanted to really look at an opportunity to make money out of these markets, as everyone was in a capital protection mode. But right now we are seeing people wanting to invest and having courage to probably incrementally invest. I am not sure whether it is a great sign but pessimism was a sure sign of the rally continuing further."

 

However, Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends feels the upmove in the market looks like a confirmed breakout despite Monday's scare. "We had a very small, but significant five-day trading range and we thought we are going to go into choppy waters. But the trading range was there and there was a pause after that upmove, whatever little that was.

It would be fair to say that this is an inflection point. There was a time when investors could invest at 2,600-2,700 and that was with the understanding that they could go lower. But it was a low risk area. Now, this is not a low risk area, but it is a very high probability, strong momentum area."

He feels investors looking to invest thinking that the markets have moved up can invest another 200 points later. "For traders it was always a buy on dips or a buy market for sometime now. This is a small window of opportunity for investors as well." However, he was quick to caution that everything can go wrong.

 

Crude at $52/bbl

Crude oil fell, paring yesterday's 8.8% rally, after the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the group is likely to cut its energy demand forecast on declining economic growth projections.

In after hours access, crude was trading at USD 51.87 per barrel on the Nymex.

GMR Infra Mar qtr PAT seen at Rs 29cr: KRChoksey

KRChoksey Research has come out with its earning estimates on Infrastructure sector for the quarter ended March 2008. According to the research firm, GMR Infrastructure March quarter sales are expected to go up 8% at Rs 957 crore on YoY basis.

The company's PAT is seen down 43% at Rs 29 crore on YoY basis.

 

Nifty Intraday Chart 02-04-2009

Click on image to enlarge