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Friday, April 3, 2009

FII View on current market upmove

 

More regulation by G20 –ve for return on capital: ING Fin 

 

Commenting on the outcome of the G20 meet, Tim Condon, ING Financial Markets said he doesn't expect anything from the meet. 

Deutsche AM positive on FMCG, Tele space 

 

Suresh Soni of Deutsche Asset Management feels that volatility is causing mutual funds to remove money but he sees no redemption pressure.

 

Near-term outlook for mkts uncertain, buy on dips: Experts 

 

Experts like Ajay Loganadan of HSBC Private and Sajiv Dhawan of JV Capital Services expect the markets to trade in a band for the next couple of month  Read More

 

Indian mkt valuations apt for long-term buys: Karl-Thomson 

 

Patrick Shum, Chief Strategist, Karl-Thomson Securities sees selling in the market going ahead as fears on the auto sector's future has been mounting 

 

Mkts to rally throughout 2009: JP Morgan 

 

Adrian Mowat, Chief Asian & Emerging Market Equity Strategist at JP Morgan feels that investor sentiment still bearish  

 

Expects Asian markets to come off a bit: Tyche Group 

Stephen Gollop, CEO of Tyche Group says,"I fear that the dollar will be the loser at the end of the day and will come back down". Read More

 

Small probability of mkts testing Mar lows: Credit Suisse

 

Robert Parker, Vice Chairman, Credit Suisse Asset Management, said markets are currently trading weak on profit-booking after the recent rally.


ECB should ease rates further: BoA Merrill Lynch 

 

Michael Hartnett, Global EM Equity Strategist, BoA Merrill Lynch said the depth of the European recession is just as big as the one in the US


Could be a multi year bull market for Asia: Puru Saxena 

 

Puru Saxena, CEO OF Puru Saxena Wealth Management said, I don’t think that this bear market has further to run.


Sensex will be driven by global markets: Barclays Capital

 

Jordan Kotick, Global Head-Technical Strategy of Barclays Capital says that the Sensex will be driven by global market trends.

 

Where do experts see markets headed?

Jhunjhunwala feels the Nifty may touch 3,850-4,000 during the year. Meanwhile, Desai believes the Sensex will range between 7,000 and 15,000 by December. He advises investors to focus on companies with good balance sheets.

Experts differ if current upmove qualifies a breakout

Markets built on the stellar gap up start and closed the day at a six-month high. It was an across the board surge led by heavyweights and sectors like realty and metals. At closing bell, the Nifty stood at 3,211 up 151 points, while the Sensex closed in style at 10,357 up 455 points. Markets closed with smart gains of 3.5% for the week. Also see: Nifty ends above 3200 on strong global cues; Realty up 9%

 

Shashank Khade, Vice-President, Portfolio Managment Services, Kotak Securities, said today's upmove does not look like a breakout for markets. "This entire upmove happened on the back of a couple of events that are clustered together. The G-20 meeting is now progressing. There is also a final vote-on-account (VoA) on the mark-to-market (MTM) accounting. All this has boiled up sentiment substantially in global markets. Indian markets, being a slave of the global markets, will behave in the same manner the global markets rally up or down."

He feels markets have got carried away by the momentum in global markets. "Today’s rally reminds me of the last four months of 2007 where momentum was the way to go. One needs to wait it out and understand how events pan out in the next couple of weeks or days before taking aggressive incremental equity investments as one could be looking at equal upsides and downsides in equities."

Khade cautiones that if rewards are going to be fast and swift, the punishment is also going to be the same if global markets were to rally down. "Most global markets from the first week of March onwards to now have rallied substantially and are clearly ahead of earnings season, which is going to be pretty weak. We are precariously poised globally and more importantly in India. We are not going to have great amount of positive surprises after such a rally has taken place at the pace at which we are going."

"If one were to look at 8,000 to be a base, then 12,000-12,500 would be the upside on a most optimistic case. The risk rewards are not as great as one wants it to be and clearly the downsides are pretty large if one's call goes wrong. I would be a bit cautious and guarded rather than blast away at these sort of levels."

According to him, pessimism was a sure sign of the rally continuing further but investors are now beginning to buy. "The most important foundation for the rally was pessimism, which was at a high in the last couple of weeks. Nobody wanted to really look at an opportunity to make money out of these markets, as everyone was in a capital protection mode. But right now we are seeing people wanting to invest and having courage to probably incrementally invest. I am not sure whether it is a great sign but pessimism was a sure sign of the rally continuing further."

 

However, Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends feels the upmove in the market looks like a confirmed breakout despite Monday's scare. "We had a very small, but significant five-day trading range and we thought we are going to go into choppy waters. But the trading range was there and there was a pause after that upmove, whatever little that was.

It would be fair to say that this is an inflection point. There was a time when investors could invest at 2,600-2,700 and that was with the understanding that they could go lower. But it was a low risk area. Now, this is not a low risk area, but it is a very high probability, strong momentum area."

He feels investors looking to invest thinking that the markets have moved up can invest another 200 points later. "For traders it was always a buy on dips or a buy market for sometime now. This is a small window of opportunity for investors as well." However, he was quick to caution that everything can go wrong.

 

Crude at $52/bbl

Crude oil fell, paring yesterday's 8.8% rally, after the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the group is likely to cut its energy demand forecast on declining economic growth projections.

In after hours access, crude was trading at USD 51.87 per barrel on the Nymex.

GMR Infra Mar qtr PAT seen at Rs 29cr: KRChoksey

KRChoksey Research has come out with its earning estimates on Infrastructure sector for the quarter ended March 2008. According to the research firm, GMR Infrastructure March quarter sales are expected to go up 8% at Rs 957 crore on YoY basis.

The company's PAT is seen down 43% at Rs 29 crore on YoY basis.

 

Nifty Intraday Chart 02-04-2009


Click on image to enlarge

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Intro Technical Analysis (Video1)


Intro Technical Analysis

Intro Technical Analysis Video

Stock-Picking Strategies: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the polar opposite of fundamental analysis, which is the basis of every method explored so far in this tutorial. Technical analysts, or technicians, select stocks by analyzing statistics generated by past market activity, prices and volumes. Sometimes also known as chartists, technical analysts look at the past charts of prices and different indicators to make inferences about the future movement of a stock's price.

Philosophy of Technical Analysis
In his book, "Charting Made Easy", technical analysis guru John Murphy introduces readers to the study of technical analysis, explaining its basic premises and tools. Here he explains the underlying theories of technical analysis:

"Chart analysis (also called technical analysis) is the study of market action, using price charts, to forecast future price direction. The cornerstone of the technical philosophy is the belief that all factors that influence market price - fundamental information, political events, natural disasters, and psychological factors - are quickly discounted in market activity. In other words, the impact of these external factors will quickly show up in some form of price movement, either up or down."

The most important assumptions that all technical analysis techniques are based upon can be summarized as follows:

  1. Prices already reflect, or discount, relevant information. In other words, markets are efficient.
  2. Prices move in trends.
  3. History repeats itself.


What Technical Analysts Don't Care About
Pure technical analysts couldn't care less about the elusive intrinsic value of a company or any other factors that preoccupy fundamental analysts, such as management, business models or competition. Technicians are concerned with the trends implied by past data, charts and indicators, and they often make a lot of money trading companies they know almost nothing about.

Is Technical Analysis a Long-Term Strategy?
The answer to the question above is no. Definitely not, Technical analysts are usually very active in their trades, holding positions for short periods in order to capitalize on fluctuations in price, whether up or down. A technical analyst may go short or long on a stock, depending on what direction the data is saying the price will move. (For further reading on active trading and why technical analysis is appropriate for a short-term strategy,


If a stock does not perform the way a technician thought it would, he or she wastes little time deciding whether to exit his or her position, using stop-loss orders to mitigate losses. Whereas a value investor must exercise a lot of patience and wait for the market to correct its undervaluation of a company, the technician must possess a great deal of trading agility and know how to get in and out of positions with speed.


Support and Resistance
Among the most important concepts in technical analysis are support and resistance. These are the levels at which technicians expect a stock to start increasing after a decline (support), or to begin decreasing after an increase (resistance). Trades are generally entered around these important levels because they indicate the way in which a stock will bounce. They will enter into a long position if they feel a support level has been hit, or enter into a short position if they feel a resistance level has been struck.

How to Make Consistent Profits

A lot of people do not realize that they buy the stock because of greed and they sell the stock because of fear because what they have in their mind is how to make money as quick as possible and as easiest as possible without knowing the behavior of the stock market. In order to make profit, we should be able to acknowledge some strategy and be discipline.

Therefore, some people take their money away from the stock market and switch to commodity or foreign exchange. However, one thing we should realize that there are some industries/sectors that do not get impact the during this recession even some stocks rally up due to high inflation and wide market segmentation, meaning to say that people worldwide still use the product or service for doing everyday need or for supporting to run the business. As swing traders, this is good opportunity to growth our portfolio and to make consistently profit.

Even, we can pick up some stocks are really really undervalue in which people are fear to lose therefore they sell everything, not knowing fundamental of the companies. Also, for option trader, we can take profit from bi-directional by using some particular strategies. Therefore, the question that we should ask to our self is are we getting poorer or richer after this recession?, do you want to know how to find those stocks? For option trader, do you want to know the strategy that will generate us profit in bi-directional market?

 

How to succeed while Trading Forex

Most FOREX traders know every thing including all the indicators, market analysis and money management but lack the right orientation and what it actually takes to succeed in the trade.

It takes, what I call PIP (Practice, Intelligence and Perseverance) to really succeed in the money market.

Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 75% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure, stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.

Never trade against the trend especially with a high volatile pair like GBP/JPY. It may give you a couple of winning trades. But it's going to get you in the long run.

Always have a trading strategy, make a habit to stick to it no matter how desperate you are. Your charts are your FOREX bible. Everything that you need to know about FOREX is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.

Specialize in one or two currency pairs. 
Stay away from the ranging markets. There will be enough of trend break outs on this pair than you ever want.

You must rid yourself of the get-rich-quick mindset. There is a disease that most of the people looking to better themselves have; it is the "make a lot of easy money fast" disease. It comes from reading too many books full of hype and too many infomercials. It will destroy your ability to make significant money at anything, especially trading.

You must not be greedy while trading, learn to get satisfied with the profit you have realized and exit where necessary).

Traders are a greedy bunch. Less greedy once are the most successful once. 
Don't try to chase every single pip (profit in point)) or market movement. Have a realistic daily, weekly or monthly target as a percentage of your account, not the number of pips. If you have already achieved that target stay away from the market. Your gain should be more than your losses. Do not try to cover all your previous losses from your next trade.

At last ... remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don't be afraid of mistakes. You have to practice and make research; Sign up for one good broker now and start practicing. So practice some more. If you do this right, you can make money trading FOREX. Yes I know you can.

Just follow the steps, okay, Practice! What it takes to succeed in FOREX trading is the guts to keep practicing and maintain self discipline.

 

How to make Rs 5000 a day in Trading

Can you claim to be able to make Rs 5000 a day in profits from your trading? In fact how many traders you know can teach you a way to make Rs 5000 a day everyday?

I dare say not many, because if you work out the sums, Rs 5000 a day works out to $10,000 a month. The professional traders make much more than this, while the private trader who lives by trading makes around this figure per month.

It is actually not difficult to make such consistent profits at all. You will have to work hard to achieve such results of course. Here are the steps you need to take to be able to make such a sum.

Step 1

Have a good money management plan. This is the crucial step, without it you can very well forget about getting any profits at all. A good money management plan consists of rules to guide leverage and margin, stop loss, profit objectives and position size.

Profit objectives are something that a lot of traders seem to have forgotten. In my classes I come across statements from students that ask why not let their profits run and try to cut their losses. My answer is this, "we are not doing a wild wild west here, allowing any from of control to escape your hands shows a severe lack of professionalism and foresight"

Not exactly a mild rebuke, but the idea of allowing a run away profit is not good financial planning. The reason for this is answered in step 2. But before we get there, remember to focus on a good money management plan. There is very resources on this but try to get as much information as possible as this is the corner stone of your trading.

Step 2

In your quest to make Rs 5000 a day in trading, your focus should be on your mind. You need to attract the money to you. You need to want to profit and you need to control all emotions. How this works is that you use your brain before and after the trade. During the trade you switch it off. You use your heart before and after your trading day. During the trading day, you detach your emotions.

Now this is a tough step to master. For money management it is easier because there are tangible elements, but for psychology everything is inside of you. Psychology is concerned about discipline, emotional detachment, and the ability to handle losses and profits.

In answer to the question in money management, when you allow profits to run and not set profit objectives you set yourself up to be too emotionally involved in the trade. How many of you can say enough is enough when you see your trade making more and more money? The reality is that most will just keep in the trade and then become like gleeful school children after the trade is over.

When that happens you have "programmed" your mind to behave in this way. So when you start to lose money you will also become so attached to your trade. Then what happens is that you refuse to exit the trade. You shift your stop loss position, finally you are out of money and then you are forced to end the trade. You may think that this may never happen to you, but after 20 years of trading and teaching I can safely tell you that 100% of traders that do not have a money management plan always face this crisis.

Last Step

A well crafted trading plan. This is where most traders are quite comfortable. Unfortunately there are a lot of half baked trading plans out there in the market. A good trading plan is one that covers 4 core areas. An intra day trade, a daily trade, a weekly trade and a monthly trade. There is too much information to write about it here, the blog provides a lot more information for you so pop by and visit.

How to make Rs 5000 a day in trading is to follow the above 3 steps. Just be sure to know that it is not easy. You will need time and effort to be able to reach such a figure per day. Just think that if you need 6 years of schooling to be an architect, you are considered lucky to take a year to learn how to trade properly and profitably.

 

How to Become Day Trader

There are many of us who would like to know exactly how to gain financial freedom through day trading. This is becoming an increasingly popular way to supplement your regular income, because you can work whenever you feel like it without having to answer to anyone. The first thing you need to do is to make sure you have the basics: a high speed internet connection, a charting service, real-time quotes and a broker service. However, keep in mind that if you truly want to become a day trader you need to possess a number of skills that are essential for your trading success.

Here are 7 useful tips to become a successful day trader:

  1. Don't use borrowed money: Stocks are unpredictable and can fall at any time, so only trade with money you can afford to lose.
  2. Start small: don't invest too much money on your first try. Wait until you have gained enough experience and then gradually increase you investments.
  3. Learn from you mistakes: every time you fail you should carefully examine what where the factors that led you to failure. There are many people who keep repeating the same mistakes without ever questioning their techniques.
  4. Don't give up too early: as soon as they lose some money many traders quit, believing that this is just a waste of time. You need to stay strong and focus on the target.
  5. Always record your trades: keeping a record of every action that worked or failed will help you develop your own profitable strategy.
  6. Establish a stop loss policy: money management is a very important skill. Don't risk wiping out your whole account.
  7. Learn from the best: finding a great mentor and getting a good trading education is critical for your success. You need to learn how to analyze market trends and develop the correct money management strategy.

 

Global Financial Crisis affect the Day Trader

During the last two decades most markets were in long term bullish up trends.

We day traders could have been forgiven for becoming defensive about our craft as, week after week; we read sober articles exhorting investors not to "fall into the trap of trying to time the markets". Do not, they were told, act like day trading cowboys.

Instead of trying to time markets, clients were advised to take the Warren Buffet approach. Buy great companies and hold the stocks long term.

[Ironically, we now know that some of the organizations promoting this advice to clients were actually trading highly-leveraged, under-secured derivative instruments around the world. In comparison, most day traders act like pin-striped conservatives.]

Buy-and-hold is sound advice in a rising market. It is bad advice in a falling market, as countless unfortunate investors have found to their cost. It is especially bad if you are forced to liquidate holdings for any reason - to meet margin calls, for example.

When markets rise for years, buy-and-hold can become the default wisdom for all occasions. People are hypnotized into thinking the strategy will ride through occasional "downturns" and, when hit with a full blown recession, they sit and watch in horror as profits erode and turn into massive losses.

I believe day trading is inherently much safer than buy-and-hold investing for three reasons:

  • The day trader makes money in rising or falling markets. Short term traders have the skills, tools and techniques to work with long or short positions. Unlike the buy-and-hold investor they are not locked into a world view that profit can only be made if prices go up.
  • The day trader holds capital on the side lines most of the time waiting for a trading opportunity, then moves in for a quick strike. (I am rarely exposed to the market for more than an hour each trading day, often it is just a few minutes.) In contrast, the buy-and-hold investor is exposed to "event risk" twenty four hours per day, week after week, year after year. When war, natural disaster, or economic catastrophe strikes, the buy-and-hold investor takes the hit and hopes the markets will recover.
  • A day trader is a disciplined risk manager. (Otherwise he or she will not last long in the business.) There is a plan for every trade entered, and if the trade does not work out a small loss is taken without emotion. in contrast, the average buy-and-hold investor has no risk management plan, other than to hold on and hope the markets will come back.

I am not being quite fair here. I am comparing an average buy-and-hold investor, a person who decides to buy some shares, with a competent day trader. But even if the long term buy-and-hold investor is a sophisticated operator, they are still more subject to unexpected event risk, still less flexible for short trading, and still find risk management (portfolio protection) more complex.

I trade the grain futures markets each day. During the last two years, prices in these markets rose relentlessly to record peaks, before plunging by more than 50%. That is the macro view.

However, the macro picture makes absolutely no difference to the way I approach my daily trading activity!

I go through the same routine, make decisions on the same basis, whether wheat is $10 per bushel and going to the moon, or $5 and collapsing.

This stability, this consistency of approach through all market conditions, this capacity to prosper in all market phases; these are the things I truly enjoy about day trading!

 

Day Trading Advice

Becoming a day trader is becoming a hot means for the average person to earn an income. You will find individuals who treat it as a full time job and others treat it as a method to make some extra money. Several individuals earning good livings with day trading which explains why numerous people are tempted to try it out.

Now obviously you can't simply start and make sizeable cash without understanding what you're doing! You want to have a certain level of knowledge when you get started so that you can make the best of your money. As we know, purchasing shares at a low price and selling high is how you earn money in the stock market. Obviously, the big question is - how can you know when to purchase and sell?

Employ these important day trading tips to increase your income possibilities.
Know what's in the market news and stay informed about the markets. You want to stay on top of happenings in the markets such as mergers, stock issuance, and earnings announcements for leading businesses. It's essential to gain a sound overview of the happenings in the markets.
Don't spend too much time on stocks with little movement. Changes in share prices are the key for day trading. In day trading you are buying and selling shares every day so you need to be invested in stocks that have daily price variations.

Improve your quantitative analysis skills. You'll need to be capable of analyzing trending and financial data at a glance. There's no need to be a master mathematician, but you need to know what the financial numbers mean so that you can make fast, accurate assessments.
Stay cool and determined. You need to keep your emotions even to avoid clouding your assessments. Whether you are too excited about a big trade, or deeply disappointed about a loss, both of these responses can hinder your ability to remain in the game, take smart actions, and keep a clear mind.

You may not get wealthy right away, but these hints are going to get you on the route to earning great cash with day trading. When you have the best tools and resources, you can experience the unbelievable money making potential that day trading offers.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Successful Traders Use Successful Trading Techniques

What are the successful trading characteristics of today's successful traders?

Some people are very comfortable doing stock analysis and some are not. And just because you feel confident and comfortable trading stocks, it doesn't necessarily mean you will be good at it. There are no hard and fast rules on what makes a successful stock trader, yet there are several characteristics that those who make the most amount of money in the least amount of time all have in common.

1. To be successful, a trader must be patient. A successful trader let’s winning positions run, but is able to swallow his pride and close the trade when it isn't working. Patience means knowing how to be resilient, courageous, and disciplined when the markets go against you.

2. The exploration of stocks is a key ingredient to becoming a successful trader. Developing skill in both fundamental and technical analysis is suggested.

3. The successful trader is passionate and has a biting desire to succeed. The biting desire to succeed can make all the difference in educating yourself about what you want to know and sticking to your strategy when the going gets rough.

4. As they practice stock trading, potential embarrassment is not a concern with successful traders. They expect to have losses and know when to cut them as soon as they are recognized.

5. Successful traders are highly disciplined. Extremely disciplined a successful trader does what needs to be done, even if he isn't in the mood. Discipline also means sticking to your strategy, not suddenly buying or selling on a whim, or because of a" hot tip".

6. Successful traders know that mistakes are going to happen. They realize and appreciate that the ability to make their own mistakes is a necessary part of the learning process.

7. A winning trader knows the difference between defensive and offensive behavior, and when to use each - protect your money first, profit later.

8. Successful traders balance their lives. Stock trading can be addicting, a successful trader can break away 'at will' before putting too much at risk.

9. Successful traders are risk adverse. They don't like losing money and control themselves before losing a large quantity, even if they have to admit they made a mistake.

10. Getting emotionally involved or placing trades based on hunches or rumors are not characteristics of successful traders. To be victorious you have to be able to resist the urge to prove you are right and be ready to make mistakes. Greed and fear should not affect your decisions. Setting stop losses on every trade is something that promotes success in trading. This means that on more than one occasion, you will have to admit that you are wrong. By using stop loss strategies correctly, your ego and your portfolio will survive and you may be able to get back into your "pet" position again when trends tell you it is the appropriate time to do so. You will have to learn to disregard any emotional ties you have to your stock and make quick stock trends your master. Although you might miss the lowest entry points and the top selling points, you will be able to sleep at night and look at yourself in the mirror in the morning. Learning to get out of a stock position before your profits turn to losses becomes a necessity. Learn solid stock investing concepts.

Successful Tips for Day Trader

It is a well-known fact that the majority of day traders incur losses in their trades. But there are a handful of successful day traders that consistently make healthy profits over the longer-term. The question is, what really makes the difference between profitable and unprofitable day traders? The answer is, successful day traders possess a number of characteristics that their unprofitable counterparts do not. If you want to be a profitable day trader, read through this list of successful day trader characteristics in order to determine what you can do to improve your performance:

Adjusting to the market. Financial markets are entities that are constantly changing. They are influenced by a myriad of economic, political, and social factors that we have no control over. As much as technical analysis and identifying patterns is crucial to profiting from day trading, their effectiveness can only take you so far. A good day trader must be able to spot external factors that will have an impact on the price of a financial instrument and adjust his strategy accordingly.

The ability to stay neutral. You cannot let your emotions get in the way of objective trading. A successful day trader does not think the whole world is coming to end when he loses $1000 on a trade just like he doesn't open a bottle of champagne every time he makes $1000 on one. He doesn't let the outcomes of individual trades guide his strategy. Instead, he focuses on the overall outcome over a period of time and judges his performance upon it.

A business plan. Day trading is a business, and like any other business, it requires you to have a plan. A good day trader maps out every crucial aspect of his business. What are your start-up costs? How much do you want to work? What is the maximum loss you can sustain? What techniques do you want to focus on? These are questions that you should already have answered and put down on paper before you even made your first trade. If not, now would be a good time to do so.

Focus on techniques. Have you ever heard the saying "specialization is the key to success"? If you watch an experience day trader for a while, you will notice that he tends to stick to a few techniques that have proven to work for him. If you find a certain technique that works for you initially, test its viability over a period of time. If the outcome is positive, then stick to the technique. Experimenting with too many different strategies can be costly and is not a wise decision.

Money management. Successful day traders protect their accounts and manage their risks properly. With every trade they make, they risk a controlled percentage of their money (typically ¼% to 2%). If a trader has a $25,000 account and risks 2% on each trade, then the maximum loss he chooses to incur is $500. It is a relatively small loss when compared with the size of his account and will surely not spell doom for his day trading career. The key is to be disciplined enough to stick to your risk percentage.

Risk appetite. Day trading, by nature, is a risky business. A successful day trader must have a healthy tolerance for risk and be emotionally able to handle the idea of losing money. There is no comfortable trading pattern in this business that will earn you money 100% of time, so you have to get over your fear of uncertainty.

Risk Capital. A shrewd day trader always risks money he can afford to. He never trades with money that is set aside for paying off student loans, mortgages, or electricity bills. Knowing that you won't have to live off food stamps if you lose all your money in day trading actually helps you focus better because the psychological strain is less acute

To be a good, profitable day trader, there really is no need to re-invent the wheel. If you follow in the footsteps of those who have met with success, you have a much higher chance of doing the same. Use this knowledge to your advantage and be brave, but prudent at all times.

Ted Idea Worth Spreading

Basics of Commodity Trading

You must first know what commodity you are trading, which means that you have to do enough research so that you know everything there is to know about it and how it moves in different economic situations. This will allow you to track the maturity of the commodity, how its demand curve will move along as time goes by and what other developments might either hinder or help its growth within the business and economical market.
This is applicable to both business to business as well as specialist, or consumer products and commodities that are up for trading on the investment floors all over the world. Here information is your best friend because you can recycle the raw information and derive a strategy based on that. Just knowing the price movements and previous market psychology is not enough when looking at the specs of the commodity that you are trading. Where is it going? What factors would stall or increase its demand potential? Is it technology based? Does it follow the normal production and advancement cycles that most commodities have? Are there alternatives to it in the making?
These are the questions (some of them) you need to be asking. Basics of commodity trading really is basic knowledge of the commodity itself. We have not even gone into market physics and how market players interact with potential situations. These are the deliverables and collectible information you need to process in and out of your investment day. With this, trading will be a slightly less complicated game to play.

Nifty Intraday Chart 31-03-2009



Monday, March 30, 2009

30 March 2009

Sensex below 9600
Sensex remains bearish all through the session on the back of weakness across international markets and closes 480 points down.
Sensex that had surged over 1,100 points during the last five sessions witnessed a major sell-off today. Tracking weak Asian markets, Sensex was 146 points down at 9902 at the   
opening bell, and continued to fall all through the day. After plunging below 9600 mark to touch the day's low of 9521, Sensex moved within a range though with a negative bias. A spell of panic selling towards the close led Sensex close 480 points down at 9568 whereas Nifty shed 131 points to close at 2978.

Except consumer durables and health care that were marginally up, all other sectoral indices posted losses for the day. Banking and metals sectors were the worst hit, down 7-8% each, information technology, teck , capital goods power and public sector units sectors were down over 3-4% each. 

Market breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining shares, was negative. Of the 2,473 stocks traded on BSE, 1,471 stocks declined, whereas 904 stocks advanced. Ninety eight stocks ended unchanged. Most of the index heavyweights ended in the red. JP Associates tumbled 12.34% at Rs78.50. ICICI Bank at Rs337.95, Tata Steel at Rs196.15, Reliance Infrastructure at Rs502.45, DLF at Rs165.55, State Bank of India at Rs1,022 and Tata Consultancy Services at Rs522.75 fell by around 9-12% each. Among other major losers, Hindalco Industries dropped 8.81% at Rs50.20, Tata Motors lost 8.74% at Rs172.30, HDFC fell 8.72% at Rs1,450.55 and Reliance Communications declined by 8.70% at Rs167.85. National Thermal Power Corporation, however, bucked the downtrend and gained 0.80% at Rs183.50. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries was up 0.25% at Rs1,079.50. 

Banking stocks were among the worst hit. Kotak Bank dropped 11.02% at Rs268.45, Punjab National Bank slumped 9.97% at Rs397.15, Yes Bank shed 9.59% at Rs49.95 and Axis Bank slipped by 7.84% at Rs397.40. Bank of Baroda, Federal Bank, Union Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Karnataka Bank, Bank of India and Oriental Bank of Commerce also ended weak.

Over 1.63 crore shares of Cals Refineries changed hands on BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (1.31 crore shares), Unitech (1.21 crore shares), S Kumars (98.56 lakh shares) and Suzlon Energy (79 lakh shares).
 
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